The Return of the Grocery Van

As many of you may know, I’m a great advocate of multi-channel shopping solutions.  In my mind we will (indeed many of us already have) found that purchases across the different shopping categories will be divided across all the current channels (Supermarkets, Convenience, Discounters & Online – both standard and non-standard retailers) in a way that relates to the characteristic of each category to the shopper.

Let me lay down some examples;

 Products                                              Typical Frequency               Ideal Channel

Milk & Bread                                       Daily                                      Convenience

Health & Beauty                                 Monthly                                Supermarket (or indeed High Street)
Biscuits & Cereals                               Bi-weekly (Light)                 Discounters
Soft Drinks & Tinned                          Bi-weekly (Heavy)               Online Grocers
Washing Powder & Toilet Roll         Quarterly (Volume)             Online Non-Grocers (Amazon)

Of course these are meant to demonstrate indicative differences, and any can be bought from any channel, but you may take my point that shopping across the channels is so much more convenient, depending upon the category.  Indeed overall convenience in all its guises is very much in the minds of the shopper nowadays, and they are willing to pay a premium (sometimes small but a premium all the same) for this convenience.

There is of course one important category that I have not mentioned (indeed there are a few, but I want to focus on one in particular!), and that is Fresh Fruit & Vegetables, where does that fit?

Well it is more akin in frequency of Milk and Bread, but the selection in the convenience channel is generally poor, discounters are improving their offering in this regard but that is not convenient for most, and doing smaller top-ups in the supermarket channel can be time consuming.  Further, the online channel can never perform well in this category as shoppers mistrust of a third party selecting the best produce is a key barrier…so what about the humble grocery van?

This isn’t as daft as it sounds…think about it, it has lots of advantages that other channels don’t.

It’s the ultimate in Convenience as the van comes to you.

Shoppers can ensure Quality by handling and selecting their own produce.

It’s Green as is stops those short car journeys to the nearest store.

It promotes Healthy eating by making fresh produce even more accessible.

It therefore completes the full repertoire of shopper requirements amongst the available channels moving forward!  Who would have said 10 years ago that their main store was the local petrol station!

Things have changed, and will continue to change as shoppers move away from the large weekly shop to a more demand based model, where they know the consumption occasions of all their purchases.  Additionally where there is constant demand for certain products or brands on an on-going consumption basis, stocking up via online retailers (whether specialist or non-specialist grocers) will continue to grow.

…so I’m just off to my local van dealership to get mine kitted out, are you?

 

 

Is “The Apprentice” damaging the research industry?

The current series of The Apprentice has poignantly illustrated the distorted and potentially damaging representation of market research currently being broadcast to the public on a weekly basis.

Don’t get us wrong we are big fans of The Apprentice here at Evolution, but when we take our telly hats off and put our research caps on, we feel we have to fight our corner a bit because The Apprentice doesn’t always portray our industry in the best light.

The thing about The Apprentice is that, for the benefit of entertainment, it necessarily shoe-horns projects that, in the real world would take months to complete into a two day mad scramble. The results are not so much half-baked but more a doughy mess.

So in this context it’s inevitable that a research project that would in reality involve a range of methodologies conducted over multiple stages is reduced to a ‘research bit’ consisting of a single “let’s ask 5 people” focus group and base an entire idea around it.. How often would we as research professionals recommend just one focus group…?

Then there’s the Cardinal Sin that these groups are moderated by the candidates themselves, who obviously have something of a vested interest in seeing their ideas come to fruition.

Of course, it’s all part of the fun that these supposedly brilliant business minds are rarely more than egotistical wannabes, but it’s unfortunate that their collective perspective on research is that it’s a hurdle over which their ideas need to leap, rather than a tool that can help to develop and hone concepts.

In truth, it’s pleasing that research is recognised on such a high profile show. And really it’s quite satisfying that the results of poorly conducted research are laid bare for all to see.

Predicting the Future of Grocery Retailing

As the leading research agency into the attitude and behaviours of shoppers in the grocery sector, and following a large number of projects undertaken relating to channels (both in the UK and Europe) I felt it was time to use this knowledge to try and predict the future.

In this brief overview, I will attempt to demonstrate why it is so important to invest research into channels outside that of the superstore, where, let’s be honest, we know quite a lot!!  For simplicity, I am considering discounters by their store type rather than their business models.

 

 

Superstores are more and more being seen by shoppers as the channel to avoid if at all possible “Can I manage without ever going in one?”….”Who wants to trail round a superstore in their leisure time?”….”I dread the experience”….”We pile our trolley high with things we probably won’t even eat”….people love eating, but don’t particular like shopping.  How different this is from our French neighbours whose mission is to find the best quality food, in the UK it is so much more functional than that. So, what are the alternatives?

The rise of the convenience sector, driven by the increasing store estates of the multiples have given shoppers the wider choice to buy just what they need, when they need it.  This all from retailers they know and trust (most of the time!), where the biggest brands are still available at reasonable prices (although they also recognise they are paying for the privilege, they seem happy to do so).  And convenience really is the key as they combine their commutes with manageable quantities of product, where the consumption occasion is already known…”Maybe I spend a bit more, but I know that it’ll all get eaten with no waste”.

Online continues to grow at above 20% per year, but from a low base, this is still pretty small in the whole scheme of things, but our research suggests we are nearing the tipping point for even faster expansion in this channel.   The introduction of click & collect in the way they have in France (where one can order at work in the afternoon, and two hours later drive to a designated car park – dark store or store car park - and have their goods loaded into their Renaults), will revolutionise the online channel beyond recognition.  No longer will waiting at home for a two hour slot be seen as convenient, and if they forget to order something, they can still nip into the store to augment their online order at the same time.

I also predict a dramatic rise in shoppers using non-standard grocery channels such as Amazon, where they benefit from big discounts on non-perishable produce, and larger SKU’s which they don’t mind storing if the price is right.  Manufacturers will ignore this at their cost, with the opportunity to sell SKU’s that superstores will not stock, there should be no issues.  I believe shoppers will change their mind-sets on where to buy certain products, fresh is one thing…but boxes of their favourite brands is another, and anyway they already have an account!

So in summary, the market will demand less supermarkets, continuing growth in the convenience sector, whilst online will establish itself as the key channel for larger shopping missions with a shift to more click & collect methodology and the growth of non-standard grocery channels (like Amazon).